Thursday, October 9, 2008

Surprise surprise...no intervention this morning.

Hey, It's been a while I haven't woke up without domestic or global intervention. What a change !!!

I know it is the historically extreme oversold condition that is attracting the army of suckers to this. But washout is inevitable, the question is when and how.
Considering that there will not be another intervention this morning, here is how I see it.

If we open higher, which looks like we will, we will print a top around 1005 or 1015 on ES. It is been pretty clear to me that during this final leg that started with a breakdown of 1055 level this week, we kept printing lower highs, starting with 1042, then 1026 yesterday, I think it will be 1005 or 1015 this morning.

Soon after the opening bell, we start selling. I expect a test of 940-950 range sometime intraday. From there we reverse and close the day above 1015 on ES

This is my final trade on the short side in this cyclical move. I am not crazy about it. These last few weeks has been the best times of my entire career. In two weeks, I almost tripled two of the futures accounts. I am up over 70% overall. I have been trading this market on the short side for months now. I think we are pretty close to the end of this era.

Again, this is my last index trade on the short side in this cyclical move, I plan to shift to the bull side after I get what I want. If not, then as I said, I can let it go around 1040 if we pop there. Not a big deal after all those profits of 100s SP points.

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