Thursday, January 22, 2009

What the following chart means?

Sol posted a very important chart that has implications for all equities and economy going forward.

Before I start, take a look at the following chart of TLT. (TLT is an ETF tracking 20yr treasury bonds).



You can see the breakaway gap from the other corner of your room can't you? That breakaway gap on TLT corresponds to the massive breakdown on $TNX. For those who dont know how these instruments move, they usually move in the opposite directions. $TNX is 10 year bond yield, TLT is a bond ETF. Although TLT is more related to the longer term maturity debt (20 year), it does move in the opposite direction of $TNX most of the time.

Technically what the above chart simply implies that the bonds will soon rise as they test a longterm channel breakout that accompanied with a longterm breakdown on $TNX. This is a direct indication of deflation and implies that the current situation is nothing like you or your grandpa has seen before (Because of the importance of the breakouts/breakdowns on very long term scales). Such situation seen in Japan in 90s. If you want to know what happened to them, do a little research.

One of the reasons I have been shifting away from my bullish stand for a bear market rally was this.

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