Don't say you weren't warned

Dear all,

JB3 here. Two things:

1. Don't say you weren't warned

...not that we have any kind of obligation to warn you, but here I go anyway. 

These kinds of events that are coming very soon get wild. In the past wave down and bottoming process we saw a number of xtrenders blow their accounts up. Following in the same vein as Atilla's last post:

Margin  x  Volatility  x  Emotion  x  Inexperience   =   KABOOM

or 

Margin  x  Volatility  x  Emotion  x  Inexperience  x  Greed  =  MUSHROOM_CLOUD

Recall the last wave down, as shown in the chart below. Pay particular attention to the shaded areas:

 

2. Elliott Waves update

Trying to make a case that the price patterns in the recent bounce are impulsive (ie. bullish) is a difficult one indeed. I see quite a bit of overlap and general untidiness indicative of impulses. 

EDIT: Sorry about the typo: That should read: I see quite a bit of overlap and general untidiness which is NOT indicative of impulses.

Right now I am 90% convinced the Elliott Waves are corrective. I will be 100% convinced when the SPX prints below 758.

That's not to say the bounce won't go higher. I would be surprised if 818ish was tested, and I would be proven wrong about this short term analysis if 876 was taken out.

"What????" I hear you say? "Geez man 876 is a long way from here!.... I'm going short anyway even though I'll get margined out at 820 'cos I'm not gonna miss this one!".... If that's your view, save yourself the heartache and the brokerage fees and transfer the funds in your account directly to me, 'cos you're on a slippery slope to Trading Account Armageddon and rather than give your money to some silver-suited shark why not give it to a fellow xtrender instead ;-)

Seriously, now.... manage your risk prudently or suffer the consequences.

Take care out there,

JB3