Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Another distribution day ...

Tomorrow is Fed day... It is gonna be boring till 2:15

Considering the big picture that suggests a multi-day sell off as a start for the impending intermediate term downtrend, my best guess is we gonna rally after the Fed to reverse next day. Because Fed pattern suggests a reversal after the Fed day or the day after.

If we sell off, it wouldn't fit quite well in the big picture as the sell off should lead to a multi-day rally that will distort the intermediate term structure.

But in case we sell off, it will have to be a severe and sharp, like we test 810 or something because this sell off on Fed day will likely be followed by a reversal that will start a multi-day rally. Again, considering the big picture, this rally must stop around 875-880. Therefore any sell off on the Fed day must be deep to make enough room for the next possible rally that should die around 875.

Staying massively short from 865...


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